In a historic demographic shift, South Korea has reached a sobering milestone: for the first time in a century, there are more people in their 70s and older than in their 20s. This unprecedented reversal signals not just a changing population structure, but potentially an economic watershed moment for one of Asia’s most dynamic economies.
A Demographic Milestone
According to the Population and Housing Census results released by South Korea’s Ministry of Data and Statistics, the population in their 20s last year numbered 6,302,000, marking a decrease of 193,000 from the previous year. Meanwhile, those in their 70s and older were counted at 6,543,000, exceeding the 20s population by 241,000.
This marks the first time since record-keeping began in 1925 that the traditionally robust young adult population has been overtaken by the elderly. The 20s population peaked at 7,030,000 in 2020 and has since declined annually by between 140,000 and 210,000. Last year’s decrease was the largest among all age groups, surpassing even those under 10 years old (192,000) and those in their 40s (169,000).
Economic Implications Abound
Labor Market Challenges
The shrinking 20s population faces mounting employment challenges, raising fears of economic slowdown and worsening the population crisis. In August, the employment rate for those in their 20s was 60.5%, down 1.2 percentage points from a year earlier. More concerning is that this employment rate has continued to decline or stagnate for 12 consecutive months since August of last year (61.7%), failing to rebound even once.
The unemployment rate for those in their 20s in August rose 1.0 percentage point to 5%, the highest in three years since 2022 (5.4%). This is attributed to large companies increasingly engaging in rolling recruitment of experienced hires rather than public recruitment, significantly reducing job opportunities for 20-somethings entering society.
According to a Federation of Korean Industries survey, 28.1% of new graduate hires at the top 500 companies by sales last year were experienced hires, up 2.3 percentage points from the previous year (25.8%). A shortage of quality jobs due to U.S. tariff policies shrinking manufacturing and a construction slump is also exacerbating employment challenges for those in their 20s.
Broader Economic Impact
Experts warn that if those in their 20s struggle to establish themselves in society, it could lead to further delays in marriage and childbirth, deepening the existing low birth rate problem. Social expenditures for both old-age income protection and medical protection are expected to increase to nearly 20 percent of GDP, posing a significant threat to fiscal stability.
The Korea Development Institute projects average economic growth rates of 1.9% between 2023-2030, dropping to 1.3% between 2031-2040. Even more dire projections from the Korea Economic Research Institute suggest South Korea’s GDP could decline by 28.4% between 2022 and 2050 due to the demographic crisis.
Government Response and Policy Efforts
Recognizing the severity of the issue, South Korea has become a “super-aged” society as of December 2024, where more than 20 percent of the population is aged 65 years or older. This makes it one of the fastest aging societies globally.
The government has been implementing various policy responses, including the “Framework Act on Low Birth Rate in an Aging Society” established in 2005 and launching the five-year “Plan for Aging Society and Population” in 2006. The current fourth iteration of the plan (2021-2025) demonstrates a shift in paradigm in the government’s population policy, moving away from fertility-oriented policies to focusing on improving quality of life for all generations.
Efforts include expanding childbirth incentives, paternity leave benefits, and housing welfare programs for families with newborns. However, despite these efforts, South Korea’s total fertility rate actually fell to 0.65 in late 2023, making it not just the lowest among OECD countries but the absolute lowest globally.
A Global Perspective
South Korea’s demographic challenges mirror broader global concerns about aging populations and demographic decline in developed nations. However, South Korea is aging more rapidly than any other country primarily because its fertility rates have declined more sharply than elsewhere.
The total fertility rate (TFR) in South Korea declined from 4.53 children per woman in 1970 to 2.06 in 1983, falling below the population replacement level. Now, with a TFR of just 0.65, South Korea’s demographic trajectory stands apart even from other rapidly aging nations.
Korea’s working-age population is projected to decrease rapidly even as the elderly population increases. Statistics Korea forecasts that the working-age population will reduce to about half of the total population by 2050. By 2067, senior citizens are expected to reach 46.5 percent of the population, outnumbering the working-age population entirely.
Critical Juncture
With this milestone demographic shift—20-somethings outnumbered by 70-plussers for the first time in 100 years—South Korea finds itself at a critical juncture. The implications extend far beyond simple numbers:
- Consumer spending patterns will fundamentally shift
- Housing markets will need to accommodate different lifestyle needs
- The tax base will contract even as pension and healthcare obligations explode
- Innovation capacity might decline without a sufficient influx of young talent
The country’s future economic success will largely depend on how effectively it manages these interconnected demographic and economic challenges. Simply put, this isn’t just about fewer young people—it’s about whether South Korea’s economic model can adapt to an inverted population pyramid while maintaining growth and productivity.
As university students participating in events like the 2025 Sinchon Global University Culture Festival become a statistical minority, policymakers must grapple with fundamental questions about the future of Korean society. The answers won’t be easy, but ignoring them won’t make the demographic math disappear.
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